Will demographic shifts catch experts by surprise again?
by William Warren Munroe, May 5, 2017

"Canada’s latest baby boom caught experts by surprise" 1 was the title of an article in the National Post, July 4, 2014, printed more than 2 years after this trend was revealed in Canada’s 2011 Census of Population and Dwelling, Age Sex released May 28, 2012.

Could this happen again? Could an important demographic shift, like the latest baby boom, be seen in the 2016 Census of Population but over looked again by experts, academics, and main stream media reporters? Have experts figured out why they were wrong with their interpretation of demographic trends? Have experts made any changes to the way they look at current demographic trends? With one of the best sources of demographic information of any nation in the world, namely Statistics Canada’s Census of Population, Canadians should have one of the best informed societies in the world.

The author of the article, Sarah Boesveld, pointed out that business people responded to the increase in young children "But governments and bureaucracies have been much slower at the draw, raising questions of whether this phenomena crept up on them a little too fast"1

Having served the public as an Economist in the position of Population Analyst for British Columbia’s Official Statistical Agency, BC Statistics, I have another reason why "governments and bureaucracies have been much slower at the draw".

People who move into positions of government authority overseeing official population statistics can and do withhold important information as well as fire Statistical Agency Analysts who raise concerns about non-statistical and substandard methods and data used to create population numbers.

For example, people in control of British Columbia’s Official Statistical Agency, BC Statistics, provided incorrect methods and data to accompany 'unfounded' population numbers for over a decade not only provided to citizens addressing the closing of public facilities, but also to Statistics Canada and Finance Canada addressing Canada’s equalization program. 2

Unfortunately, when questioned, B.C. government representatives claimed "Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations" 3 and later stated "we do not see value in continuing to respond to enquiries of a similar nature" 4; therefore, questions remain. Little wonder Premier Christy Clark described the Capital of B.C. as having a "sick culture" 5

Also, in response to questions about why the new enrolment forecast was so much lower than the previous forecast a Superintendent of Schools replied "Any attempt to imply a grassy knoll conspiracy theory is disrespectful of the work that trustees, staff, and the community has done collaboratively to this point" 6 rather than simply providing the methods and data along with the enrolment forecast.

Former Statistics Canada Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegi, described policies to reduce the "intrinsic risks" and "the danger of monopoly" - such as requiring external reviewers and developing partnerships with outside researchers.7

Regardless of the misinformation, some people did see the latest baby boom coming. How? They looked. What does Canada’s 2016 Census of Population tell us? Is the latest baby boom continuing? What of life expectancy and migration by age groups? Follow the instructions on the Population Projections Project for Canada’s census areas website to find out for yourself.


Endnotes

1 "Canada’s latest baby boom caught experts by surprise" (Sarah Boesveld, National Post, July 4, 2014). http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/04/canadas-latest-baby-boom-caught-experts-by-surprise-in-part-because-our-birth-rate-is-declining/

2 Generalization Estimation System (GES) Small Area Population Estimation Method and Error Evaluation, BC Statistics, 2011, page 8.

3 The Equalization Program and the Property Tax Base, Feasibility Study Conducted by Statistics Canada Feasibility Report to Finance Canada, February 28, 2005, page 63.

4 A. Cocco, ServiceBC Assistant Deputy Minister, September 2013, letter sent via http:\\wminfomatics.com\WP\Articles\130924\ACocco130916.pdf

5 Comments made in September 2012: National Post and most main stream media. CORRECTION added May 8, 2017: the comments were made by Christy Clark in May 2012, at the end of an interview with Brian Hutchinson in Vancouver but not reported until in the National Post until September 18, 2012 "BC Premier avoids 'sick culture’ in legislature". Several other media outlets also ran stories about the 'sick culture' including the CBC, CTV, Times Colonist, Financial Post, Globe and Mail to name a few.

6 School District 69, Superintendent of Schools, Mr. Rollie Koop, March 2014 http:\\wminfomatics.com\WManalytics\Articles\140314\RK_Reply140304.pdf

7 ANALYTIC ACTIVITIES AT STATISTICS CANADA, Presented by Ivan Fellegi at the STATISTICAL COMMISSION and ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS, Forty-seventh plenary session, (Neuchâtel, Switzerland, 14-16 June 1999)

To learn how the projections are created visit the Population Projection Project Instructions tab.


Related Reading

Population Projection Project for Canada's Census Areas


"Population Projections Project Scenarios Compared To 2016 Census Of Population" Part 1: Are the demographic trends between 1996 and 2011 continuing? February 8, 2017


"Are the Population Projections Project Scenarios Accurate?" September 30, 2016


"With One Of The Best Statistical Agencies In The World, Canadians Have Fundamental Misunderstandings About Demographics Trends". October 20, 2016


"Possible Cures, Possible Futures For An 'Unhealthy' Culture". November 7, 2014 (Updated November 19)


Why are Statistics Canada's projections so high compared to the United Nations and the Cohort Change Ratios projections? Read Why so different?


Government population projections for BC reflect an "up and to the right" aspiration, while the cohort change ratios method shows BC's population growth slowing, and levelling out. Read a "A Comparison of Population Projections for BC"...



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