Population Projections Project compared to 2016 Census of Population, British Columbia

Population Projections Project Scenarios Compared To 2016 Census Of Population

Are the demographic trends between 1996 and 2011 continuing in the Squamish Lilloette Regional District?

by William Warren Munroe, March 3, 2017

Figure 1: GVRD Sphere of Influence¹

In the summer of 2015, I wrote several articles about the "Demographic Tsunami Epicenter: Greater Vancouver Regional District" because of the impact the GVRD has on population change for the rest of the province of British Columbia particularly for the surrounding Regional Districts.

The map of the population change for the areas surrounding the GVRD highlighted the vacuum like condition laying to the north - Squamish Lilloette Regional District (SLRD). In 2015, I pointed out that the population change for the SLRD would likely be higher than the highest population change that had occurred between the 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011 censuses.

Figure 2: SLRD Projections²

"The improved connection (the Sea to Sky highway) should result in increased social and economic integration with the Greater Vancouver Regional District." "Perhaps the influx of families has only just begun and the population may be even higher than the projected high"³

Consequently, the 2016 Census count for the SLRD should be higher than the highest growth and highest fertility scenario of 42,209 people. How did the 2016 census count compare with my guess - higher than the highest population projection scenario calculated directly from the 1996 to 2011 cenuses? For a closer look click on the charts and map.

Figure 3: SLRD Projections Close Up⁴

The 2016 Census of Population counts came in at 42,665 people for the Squamish Lilloette Regional District (RD) - 446 more than the highest growth and fertility scenario or about 1% higher.⁵

For a better understanding of the fundamental demographic shifts occurring, such as whether fertility is increasing or not, whether life expectancy is continuing to rise or not, and which age groups prefer the SLRD, we'll have to wait until the age sex counts are released in May this year.

Endnotes

¹"Demographic Tsunami Epicenter: Greater Vancouver Regional District, Part 2" by William Warren Munroe, August 24, 2015

²Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census of Population counts, with projections by William Warren Munroe using cohort change ratios. This is chart, posted in February 2014, was marked up, with the addition of vertical and horizontal lines to pin point the 2016 count for SLRD, in March, 2017.

2016 Source: Statistics Canada. 2017. Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released February 8 2017. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E

See the Population Projections Project address for Squamish-Lillooet Regional District

³ The unusually high population growth was not in the District Municipality of Squamish, but rather, the highest population growth occured in the Squamish Lilloette Regional District.

⁴Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census of Population counts, with projections by William Warren Munroe using cohort change ratios. This is chart, posted in January 2014, was marked up, with the addition of vertical and horizontal lines to pin point the 2016 count for SLRD, in March 2017. The yellow dot is was drawn in to highlight where the total population count sits on the vertical line for 2016 - above the High growth with High fertility scenario.

Each of the projection scenarios was calculated referring to the various amounts of growth (population change) from one census to the next, starting with 1996 to 2011. Fertility was calculated with reference to the number of children under 5 relative to the number of females 20 to 39 years of age. Other age groups can be used, such as the number of females 15 to 44 years of age, but these would create slightly different numbers.

⁵ 2016 Source: Statistics Canada. 2017. Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released February 8 2017. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E

Statistically speaking

Given that there is some counting error during each census, usually estimated at 2% to 3%, the >1% error is within the margin of error; therefore, we cannot say that the projection and the count were different. We can say there is no significant difference between the HH projection and the actual 2016 census counts.

Of course there is some error in each census; therefore, care should be taken when saying what something is or isn't. It appears that between 2011 and 2016, either the growth increased and / or the number of children under 5 relative to the number of females 20 to 39 years of age has increased marginally compared to the 2006 to 2011 census period. The age sex counts to be released in May this year may shed light on these issues.