Population Analysis of the Nanaimo Regional District
by William Warren Munroe, August 15, 2012, new improved chart updated on September 22

Have you ever wondered how the population pyramid for your area would change over the next, say, 30 years?

Figure 1: Population Pyramid, Nanaimo Regional District, 1996 to 2011 (adapted from Statistics Canada, Census counts) with projections to 2041.

The changing age distribution will likely impact housing prices, dwelling type construction (from single family to multi-unit dwellings), as well as public and private services.

With low fertility, (well below replacement) and as people age (all attempts at stopping this have failed, so far) deaths continue to exceed births, particularly in towns like Qualicum Beach ( the oldest town - highest median age - in Canada).

A closer look at sub Nanaimo Regional District communities (like Parksville and Qualicum Beach) will likely provide important insights into the future of the rest of Canada and perhaps the world.

To see the dependency ratio table and for an explanation of how the age / sex distribution projection was calculated, and or if you would like a population analysis including a projection for your area, email us at wmpopulationanalysis@shaw.ca or phone 250-752-0683.

Source: the 1996 to 2011 census counts are from numeric tables from Statistics Canada found online via http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm.

The 2016 to 2041 projections are created by Warren Munroe with reference to the 1996 to 2011 census counts from Statistics Canada. Of course the future is open to variation; therefore, projections are still a guess, but at least, with reference to the 1996 to 2011 census counts, this projection can reasonably be considered an educated guess.

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