Parksville Census Agglomeration Population Projection Compared to the 2011 Census Counts
by William Warren Munroe, June 13, 2012

How close was my projection for the Parksville Census Agglomeration, posted two years ago - in June 2010, to the 2011 Census counts?

Figure 1: 2011 Census Counts versus Projection for the Parksville Census Agglomeration

As mentioned in the article "Parksville Census Agglomeration, Population Projections to 2016", the projection using 2001 to 2006 to forecast net migration was likely too high since migration slows even for retirees during an economic downturn.

While serving as the Popualtion Analyst for BC Stats, I (along with several other Economists) forecast in 2004 that the next downturn in economic activity would likely occur in 2008 give or take a year. These insights can be gained by watching the components of population change.

Indeed, in-migration of those 55 and over slowed with the economic downturn.

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