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Will there be enough young adults to meet the demands of the rising elderly population? Let's take a look at picturesque Prince Edward County on the north shore of Lake Ontario, outside of the high commuter flows of Toronto, with about the same population size as Canada's oldest community, in terms of median age, the Parksville Census Agglomeration.

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What do Alberta and the west coast municipalities of Tofino and Ucluelet have in common? They are attractive to young adults with fewer children resulting in lower numbers of dependents relative to those of working age. But what about the baby boomers retiring?

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Two substantial changes between 1996 and 2011: For Ucluelet, children (0 to 19 years of age) decline by ~40%; for Tofino, number of working age (20 to 64) doubled. The result? A brief lowering of the number of dependents relative to those of working age.

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How attractive are Tofino and Ucluelet for males and females by age?

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Ucluelet looses population and resource extraction jobs and people from all age groups only to be followed by years of attracting more and more young adults, and children.

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For many young adults, small towns are unattractive - 20 to 29 year olds get out of town, rapidly, in favour of education, employment and social opportunities in larger population centers.

Bucking this trend is Tofino, on Canada's West Coast, a small town very attractive to young adults, many moving out of large population centers in favour of living closer to the wild, wide spaces and surfing.

But while the number of females 20 to 39 years of age has doubled from approximately 220 to 435 since 1996, the number of children under 5 rose by approximately 15.

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The Qualicum School District's last facility review in 2010-2011 included BC Statistics' false reporting of methods used to create population numbers. The method provided by BC Statistics did not show that BC Statistics used the change in the number of telephone lines as an indicator of population change, nor the many other influences on the final numbers. For this most recent facility review, 2013-2014, methods were simply not provided. Requests for the methods were met with accusations of "conspiracy theorists".

Help safeguard the integrity of population projection numbers used to justify public policy making by insisting on well-defined scenarios based on current demographic trends that can be verified and reproduced.

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Recall in 2010, just 7 years and 1 month after opening a $9.1 million expansion in 2003, the Qualicum School District recommended permanently closing the $9.1 million expansion along with the original high school.

Having served as the Population Analyst for BC Statistics from 2002 to 2006, I continue to advocate that correct methods must accompany findings. Be sure to get clear explanations of how forecasts used to justify opening and closing schools are made.

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Medical Health Officer for the Qualicum Local Health Area, Dr. Hasselback presented a chart showing a 31% increase in population by the year 2030 - from approximately 46,500 to 61,000 an increase of 14,400 people.

On the other hand, Rollie Koop, Superintendent of the Qualicum School District is prepared to close 4 schools based on a forecast (without providing the reasoning) of 0% increase in persons of school age to the year 2027.

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When schools are recommended for closure, a public consultation is required to ensure "a fair consideration of the community’s input and adequate opportunity for the community to respond to a board’s proposal to close the school permanently", as well as to ensure fair consideration of "future enrolment growth in the district of persons of school age, persons of less than school age and adults".

Public consultation participants have a choice, use open transparent, well defined projections.

Newly appointed Superintendent of Schools, Rollie Koop, dismisses requests for the assumptions behind new lower enrolment forecast claiming community members who ask are "disrespectful".

What is the difference between projections and forecasts?

Open, published methods and data used to create well defined scenarios, versus pretending to foretell the future

For projections that are valid (can be validated) use the Population Projection Project.

The Population Projection Project is an open, public reference to be used when considering the future enrolment growth for areas in Canada of persons of school age, persons of less than school age and adults.

Since the Qualicum School District staff and board members are not allowing the public to see the method used to create the new (lower) forecast, be sure to use the Population Projection Project.

Has the enrolment decline bottomed out and is it about to rise again in 2016/17 as forecast in 2010? Or will the enrolment decline more than expected as Baragar foretells?

One way to check is to look at the rate of change in enrolment.

Another way is to look at the enrolment of the students in Kindergarten to grade 5.

See the rate of change and the Elementry enrolment ...

Why is the updated forecast lower that the previous forecast?

Why is the updated method not published?

"Forecasting pretends to foretell the future." (Ivan Fellegi, 1999).

See the forecast comparisons.

Why are Statistics Canada's projections so high compared to the United Nations and the Cohort Change Ratios projections?

Why so different?

What does the Sandwich Generation look like? Starting alphabetically with Alberta.

Dependency Swap - From Fewer Children to More Elderly.

In an interview with CTV we discussed 1) The importance of caution when using statistics and 2) What is happening with the enrolment in Central Vancouver Island areas.

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While the north west coastal regions lose population, the Greater Vancouver Regional District received a disproportionaly high population increase between 2006 and 2011

The number of people residing in the southern portion of the coast grew from 2.6 million to over 3.2 million between 1996 and 2011.

See BC Coast Census Divisions (Regional Districts) population proportions.

Between 2006 and 2011, Canada experienced population changes from east to west but also from rural to urban.

Yet, the increase in population for Alberta and BC, when added together, was less than the increase for Ontario.

See Canada’s Population proportions.

The Penticton CA was less attractive to retirees between 2006 and 2011 with more out-migration and death than in-migration for those 60 to 69 years of age.

The number of those 30 to 45 years of age has dropped by 30% since 1996 while the number of young adults (20 to 29) stayed relatively stable.

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Population declines may happen around the year 2026 for much of the census agglomeration. But Qualicum Beach may be experiencing declines earlier. If so, those born this year will be 8 years old when the declines come. What might it be like?

Read about "6 Population Projections for Parksville Census Agglomeration"...

With fertility below replacement (less than 2 children per female), the 'boomers' ageing, and mortality increasing rapidly, why is the BC government population projection 'up and to the right'? Why do BC government interprovincial migration projections scenarios not include negative net migration?

Government population projections for BC reflect an "up and to the right" aspiration, while the cohort change ratios method shows BC's population growth slowing, and leveling out. Read a "A Comparison of Population Projections for BC"...

Declining population is considered by some to be beneficial for "the environment". On the other hand, declines are considered by some to be detrimental to economic activity. Is there a way to maintain or improve quality of life and prosperity as population growth slows, levels out, or declines?

Parksville Census Agglomeration is one of the oldest, in terms of median age of residents, regions in Canada. What does the future look like?

While deaths continue to increase and births stay relatively low, below replacement, population can only increase with even more in-migration than out-migration.

With deaths exceeding births by nearly 6 times (600%) and rising, will the fluctuating migration keep the town's total population from declining?